Estimates for 2025-26
221. Looking ahead to 2025‑26, the Government will continue to provide resources for consolidating momentum on economic growth, promoting the accelerated development of I&T industries, and enhancing public services. We will also increase capital works expenditure to cater for the NM and other public works projects relating to the economy and people's livelihood, so as to support the sustained economic development of Hong Kong.
222. The major policy initiatives announced in the 2024 Policy Address involve operating expenditure of $8.1 billion and capital expenditure of $14.1 billion. The financial implications of such initiatives have been reflected in the estimates for 2025‑26.
223. Total government expenditure for 2025‑26 will increase by 8.9 per cent to $822.3 billion, with its ratio to nominal GDP projected to be 24.4 per cent.
224. Recurrent expenditure for 2025‑26 will increase by 4.5 per cent to $588.1 billion. Of this, substantial resources will still be allocated to livelihood‑related policy areas including healthcare, social welfare and education, involving a total of $348.6 billion, representing about 60 per cent of recurrent expenditure. Non‑recurrent expenditure will decrease by 3.4 per cent to $36.1 billion.
225. Total government revenue for 2025‑26 is estimated to be $659.4 billion, while earnings and profits tax are estimated to be $301.2 billion, increasing by 8.4 per cent over the revised estimate for 2024‑25. On the basis of the Land Sale Programme and the land supply target of 2025‑26, revenue from land premium is estimated to be $21 billion, increasing by 55.3 per cent over the revised estimate for 2024‑25. Having regard to the recent trading conditions of the stock market, revenue from stamp duties is estimated to be $67.6 billion, increasing by 16.5 per cent over the revised estimate for 2024‑25. Besides, we will bring back about $62 billion from six endowment funds established outside the government accounts.
226. Taking into account the bond issuance of about $150 billion and repayments of about $54.1 billion in 2025‑26, a deficit of $67 billion is expected for the year, and the fiscal reserve will decrease to $580.3 billion.
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