Economic Outlook for 2025 and the Medium Term
17. The Hong Kong economy still faces a very challenging external environment, but there are quite a few positive factors at the same time.
18. Trade protectionism affects global trade and capital flows, dampens investment and consumer confidence, and weighs on global economic growth. It is encouraging that the Mainland economy continues to grow steadily. Our country's domestic and international circulation, expansion of high-standard opening-up, global setup of industry chains and supply chains by Mainland enterprises, etc. benefit the steady development of external trade. In addition, the Mainland economy is resilient and has a solid foundation. The Central Government's implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately accommodative monetary policy, along with its efforts to expand domestic demand, add momentum to economic growth.
19. The gradual easing of monetary policies by major central banks should support their economic growth. However, the economic and trade policies of the US have brought uncertainties to the pace of rate cuts this year. The European Central Bank also indicated that it would lower interest rates further if inflation broadly trends towards its target level. According to the IMF's latest projections, the global economy will grow by 3.3 per cent this year, slightly higher than last year.
20. Against the above backdrop, Hong Kong's exports are expected to see steady performance this year. Moreover, riding on various policies and good momentum of last year, visitor arrivals should continue to increase. Together with the recovery of other cross-boundary economic activities, these should drive continuing growth in services exports.
21. On domestic demand, investors may be more cautious due to uncertainties in the external environment. However, the expected relaxing of the global financial conditions will bode well for fixed asset investment. After last year's adjustment, private consumption showed stabilising signs towards the end of the year. A sustained increase in residents' income and steady development of the asset markets would boost consumption further.
22. Based on the above considerations, we forecast that Hong Kong's economy will continue to grow moderately this year, rising by two to three per cent in real terms for the year.
23. As for prices, it is expected that domestic cost pressures might increase as the economy continues to grow. External price pressures should remain broadly in check, though geopolitical situation might bring risks. We forecast the underlying inflation rate and headline inflation rate this year to be 1.5 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively.
24. In the medium term, monetary policy normalisation will help sustain solid growth in the global economy. The "Global South", in particular the Mainland, will continue to be an important driver of global economic growth.
25. Geopolitics will still bring challenges to Hong Kong's economy. However, the Mainland is promoting high-quality development through scientific and technological innovation, comprehensively deepening reform, and expanding high-standard opening-up. Hong Kong is also making every effort to promote market diversification and open up new growth areas, and the economy is expected to grow steadily.
26. Under "One Country, Two Systems", Hong Kong is the only place in the world that combines the global advantage and the China advantage. The current‑term Government has been vigorously expanding economic capacity and enhancing competitiveness, and achieved considerable results. As long as we actively integrate into our country's development and proactively align with national development strategies, we will definitely continue to seize new opportunities arising from the economic development of our country and the world, creating a bright future.
27. We forecast that Hong Kong's economy will grow, on average, by 2.9 per cent a year in real terms from 2026 to 2029. The underlying inflation rate is forecast to be on average 2.5 per cent a year.
| Previous Page | Content | Next Page |
