Estimates for 2024-25
206. Looking ahead, the external environment will remain complicated in the coming year. As a small and externally-oriented economy, Hong Kong's economic growth will inevitably be affected. Revenues related to asset market will still require some time to fully recover. On the expenditure side, the Government will continue to provide resources for strengthening momentum on economic growth and enhancing public services.
207. The major policy initiatives announced in the 2023 Policy Address involve revenue of about $14.2 billion, operating expenditure of $13.4 billion and capital expenditure of $25.2 billion. The financial implications of such initiatives have been reflected in the estimates for 2024‑25.
208. Total government expenditure for 2024‑25 will increase by about 6.7 per cent to $776.9 billion, with its ratio to nominal GDP projected to increase slightly to 24.6 per cent.
209. Recurrent expenditure will increase by seven per cent to $580.2 billion. Of this, substantial resources will still be allocated to livelihood‑related policy areas including health, social welfare and education, involving a total of $343.7 billion, representing 59.3 per cent of recurrent expenditure. After the pandemic, non‑recurrent expenditure will substantially decrease by 47.7 per cent to $33.6 billion.
210. Total government revenue for 2024‑25 is estimated to be $633 billion, while earnings and profits tax are estimated to be $279.6 billion, increasing by 6.8 per cent over the revised estimate for 2023‑24. Having regard to the Land Sale Programme and the land supply target of 2024‑25, revenue from land premium is estimated to be $33 billion, increasing by 70.1 per cent over the revised estimate for 2023‑24. Revenue from stamp duty is estimated to be $71 billion, increasing by 42 per cent over the revised estimate for 2023‑24.
211. Taking into account the bond issuance of $120 billion in 2024‑25, it is expected that there will be a deficit of $48.1 billion for the year, and fiscal reserves will decrease to $685.1 billion.
212. In 2024‑25, the Government will maintain its target of zero growth in the civil service establishment. Departments will enhance their effectiveness and efficiency through reprioritisation, internal redeployment and streamlining of work processes in taking forward different new policies and initiatives of the Government. It is expected that there will be about 194 000 posts in the civil service establishment as at end‑March 2025.
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