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Medium Range Forecast
193.
On the medium range forecast, after a deficit in the Operating Account for 2008-09, we expect a return to a surplus from 2009-10 onwards. The operating surplus will increase to $67.3 billion in 2012-13. For the Consolidated Account, we forecast a deficit in 2008-09, followed by surpluses in the following years. The surplus will increase to $75 billion in 2012-13. We forecast that the fiscal reserves will range between $480 billion and $720 billion over the next five years. We also estimate that operating expenditure will increase moderately, at a rate commensurate with economic growth over the next few years.
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2008–09
($ billion)
|
2009–10
($ billion)
|
2010–11
($ billion)
|
2011–12
($ billion)
|
2012–13
($ billion)
|
|
Operating revenue
|
249.4
|
293.0
|
309.2
|
329.0
|
353.8
|
|
Operating expenditure
|
255.7
|
237.3
|
251.5
|
267.8
|
286.5
|
|
Operating surplus/(deficit)
|
(6.3)
|
55.7
|
57.7
|
61.2
|
67.3
|
|
Capital revenue
|
58.5
|
60.4
|
59.9
|
63.4
|
67.5
|
|
Capital spending (including payments from
the Capital Investment Fund)
|
57.0
|
63.4
|
62.7
|
57.8
|
59.8
|
|
Repayment of government bonds and notes
|
2.7
|
3.5
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
|
Capital financing surplus/
(deficit)
|
(1.2)
|
(6.5)
|
(2.8)
|
5.6
|
7.7
|
|
Consolidated surplus/(deficit)
|
(7.5)
|
49.2
|
54.9
|
66.8
|
75.0
|
|
- as a percentage of GDP
|
0.4%
|
2.7%
|
2.8%
|
3.2%
|
3.3%
|
|
Fiscal reserves
|
477.4
|
526.6
|
581.5
|
648.3
|
723.3
|
|
- as a number of months of government expenditure
|
18
|
21
|
22
|
24
|
25
|
|
- as a percentage of GDP
|
27.7%
|
28.5%
|
29.4%
|
30.7%
|
32.0%
|
|
Public expenditure
|
332.1
|
320.7
|
335.3
|
347.5
|
369.0
|
|
- as a percentage of GDP
|
19.2%
|
17.4%
|
17.0%
|
16.4%
|
16.3%
|
194.
In 2008-09, we will take appropriate, targeted measures to help economic and social development. We will increase expenditure on social services and welfare and return part of our resources to the people on a one-off basis. We will also inject funds into the MPF accounts of low income earners. These measures will lead to a decrease in revenue and an increase in expenditure in 2008-09. I have also earmarked $50 billion to prepare for the future health care financing arrangements. This reflects the
Government's commitment to the people and our principle of investing in the community.
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